LOCATION: 16.1 degrees north, 57.6 degrees west
ISTANCE: ABOUT 471 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 MPH
AXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB At 11:00 A.M., the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West or about 471 miles east-southeast of the BVI. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph, and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.

On the forecast track, the centre of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near or over the Virgin Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, primarily to the east of the centre.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb.

Expected Impacts on Land

The initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the system passes over or near to the BVI.  There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding Erika’s development but the BVI is expected to experience tropical storm force conditions throughout the passage of this system which will include maximum sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph with gusts of 55 mph. The system has shown signs of slight strengthening and these numbers are subject to change.

Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 11 feet are expected and the Antigua/Barbuda Meteorological Service has already issued marine warnings for mariners, small craft operators and sea-bathers. Securing of vessels should be done today as the sea conditions may not permit for such actions on Thursday morning.

The BVI Ports Authority has confirmed normal business operations today. Individual ferry operators have provided updates on their service schedules and this will be communicated via a separate advisory. U.S. Virgin Islands Ports Authority confirmed that the ports are currently open but a decision on possible closures will be made later today.

Residents of the British Virgin Islands are advised to monitor the system as it progresses and keep abreast of updates issued by the Department of Disaster Management.

Visit the DDM website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates, visit our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm or follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/BVIDDM. 

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.